WOLF STREET Real-World New-Vehicle Price Index, F-150 XLT and Camry LE, 2023 Models: Ford Truck Price Shocker

But Toyota barely raised the price of the Camry. Here’s 32 years of real-world price increases compared to the CPI for new vehicles.

By wolf richter For wolf street,

It’s that time of year again when I get to update with the MSRPs of the extra-special proprietary non-adjusted WOLF STREET Real-World New-Vehicle Price Index, or more accurately the F-150 XLT and Camry LE Price Index . 2023 model year. The F-150 XLT sits just above the XL model (the low end of the F-series). The high-end model of the F-series could cost twice as much as the XLT. The Camry LE replaced the low end of the Camry line when the Camry L was discontinued. The F-150 XLT and Camry LE are both from 1990 and beyond, and both are bestsellers, which is why I use them for my index.

I use the basic version of these models, with no add-ons and without destination and delivery charges, going back to 1990 to show the growth of bestselling truck and best selling car prices in the US. And hoot for an extra special, I compare it to the CPI for new vehicles.

The chart below shows the MSRP and Consumer Price Index for new vehicles (green, right scale) for each model year of the F-150 XLT (red, left scale), and Camry LE (purple, left scale). We’ll get to the details and numbers in a moment:

since 1990:

  • MSRP of the F-150 XLT: +231%
  • MSRP of the Camry LE: +77%
  • CPI for new vehicles: +43%, including an increase of 18% over the past 24 months.

The 2023 F-150 XLT Price Hike Makes My Ears Stand UpCompared to the 2022 model and 2021 model, the total blowout price spikes by about +10% each year, two years back-to-back. Over those two model years, from the 2021 model to the 2023 model, the base MSRP without destination and delivery charges jumped by $7,540, or 21%, from $35,400 for the 2021 model to $42,940 for the 2023 model. Time to go on a buyers’ strike, no?

That’s the inflationary mindset: Manufacturers think people will pay anything because of what people paid last year plus big fat addendum stickers, so here we go.

Ford has been whining all year about its cost increases, and uses this complaint as a reason to raise its retail pricing – an inflationary mindset at the manufacturer. A lot of media attention focused on the electric F-150 Lightning’s multiple price jack-ups. But not much ink was spilled on the blowout price jack-up for the second year in a row for the regular F-150 XLT — the truck the average American is supposed to be able to buy.

In contrast, Toyota increased the price of the 2023 Camry Lee by a modest 2.6% To $25,945 without destination and delivery charges after increasing it only 1% in the last year.

Trucks are so profitable for dealers and automakers, The thing is – automakers figured this out long ago – Americans don’t mind paying through their nose for big equipment, while automakers and dealers get huge profit margins.

But when it comes to a car, all of a sudden, they become very price conscious and they don’t want anyone to make a profit. This is the situation since 20 years. And so the MSRP of the Camry, as of 2000, was was done above The F-150 XLT’s are now down 40%!

this time last yearWell, it was a big mistake. Supply chain chaos had confounded production plans, and production of the 2022 model was delayed. The whole affair was a mess. I my update is delayed till 20th novemberAnd yet, I could only get the F-150 XLT at the rumor-price that was circulating among dealers, and that one desperate dealer passed me by, which turned out to be much less.

At the time, dealers were putting big aftermarket stickers on some 2021 trucks, and MSRPs were suddenly no longer the top price, but the bottom price. I have never seen so much craziness in my entire life. Why was the dealer able to do this? Because they could, because people were paying whatever, because the inflationary mindset took over.

This year the clutter has reduced a bit. The obnoxious appendix stickers are largely gone. Some 2023 Camrys are coming to dealers. The first 2023 F-150 models could arrive in November.

CPI for new vehicles increased by 10% year-on-year Through August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and +7.3% over the past 12-month period, prices have finally increased some. But these increases in CPI came from a low base that had not actually increased at all for 20 years – due to “pleasant quality adjustments”.

The hedonic quality adjustment makes sense on a conceptual basis. If you compare the current model-year F-150 to the 1990 model-year F-150, you see that they are vehicles in name only. The new model is larger and more powerful (the base engine is a 290 hp 3.3L V6 with a silky-smooth electronic 10-speed automatic transmission). It has better fuel economy (the EPA rates the 2022 model at 19 mpg in the city and 24 mpg on the highway) and comes with all sorts of safety features, including four-wheel-disc brakes (instead of drum brakes in the rear). opposite) are included. ), as well as antilock braking, multiple airbags, and all kinds of passive safety systems. The new model is loaded with convenience features (note the 8-inch “productivity screen” in the instrument cluster, among many other features). It has 17-inch aluminum wheels, and a zillion other things a 1990 model buyer couldn’t even dream of.

Attempts to calculate the price change of the CPI for new vehicles same product for longer. If the product is improved in a dramatic way, as is the case with vehicles, the CPI estimates the cost of those improvements each year and removes them from the index. My gut tells me that these “pleasant quality adjustments”, although they make sense on a conceptual basis, are exaggerated.

The result is that CPI new vehicles have increased only 21% since the year 2000, driven almost entirely by 18% growth in the previous two years. The last two years of CPI make sense.

but it’s more complicated, The result is that the CPI for new vehicles has increased by 21% since 2000, while over the same period, the price of a base Ford truck has increased by 121% to $42,940 in 2023 from $19,410 in 2000.

According to the Census Bureau, since 2000, the “median household income” has increased by 75%, from $50,732 in 2000 to $88,590 in 2021. The effect is that these new trucks are out of reach for many more consumers.

The Camry, on the other hand, which has become bigger, more powerful and better in a myriad of ways, has “only” increased in price by 27% since 2000 – and with a 75% increase in median family income, it has become Is more economical, Its price increase since 2000 has not exceeded the 21% increase in the new vehicle CPI.

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