The Greatest Housing Bubbles in America: The Biggest Price Drops Since the Housing Bust 1. Record dips in Seattle (-3.9%), near-record in San Francisco (-4.3%) and Denver. drops spread across the US

Big drops in San Diego, Los Angeles, Dallas, Portland, Phoenix, boston, Are prices going down faster than they are going up? off course not. Oops.

By wolf richter For wolf street,

This is the first month in this cycle that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is 4-6 months behind reality, is showing a decline in home prices across all metros in the index.

In Seattle, the month-on-month decline was the sharpest on record (-3.8%). In San Francisco, the month-over-month decline (-4.3%) was the third sharpest on record, surpassed only by the two worst months during the housing bust 1 in 2008. In San Diego (-2.8%), Los Angeles (-2.8%), -2.3%), Phoenix (-2.1%), and other metros, the decline was the worst since Housing Bust 1. And the decline is spreading across the country to other metros including Dallas, Boston, Washington DC and Las Vegas.

this is a serious fall for Case-Shiller Home Price Indexwhere each month is a rolling three-month average that removes month-to-month variability.

Today’s release of the index was for “August,” which included a three-month average of closed home sales that were entered in the public records in June, July and August. Because of the delay between when the deal is made and when the “closed sale” is recorded in the public records, the time period for “August” roughly covers deals made in May through June. During that time the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate approached the 6% range. today, We’re at 7%, and the mortgage bankers are tired,

Home prices fell 4.3% in the San Francisco Bay Area The July to “August” (three-month moving average of June, July and August) decline was the third sharpest on record, surpassed only by two slightly sharper declines during the depth of the housing bust 1 in 2008. The dip in August was an acceleration of declines in July (-3.5%) and June (-1.3%).

The index has fallen 8.9% from its peak. In those three months, the index fell faster (-35 points) than the rise in prices during the previous three-month spike (+27 points). Are house prices going down faster than they are going up? No way, impossible. Oops.

This turn of events reduced year-to-date gains to +5.6%, from +24% earlier this year, unleashing yet another leg of the ridiculous spike over the past two years. The index is now at its lowest level since January.

The Case Shiller index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.

In the Seattle metro, home prices fell 3.9% In August, the biggest month-on-month decline on record, on top of a 3.1% decline in July and a 1.9% decline in June. The index has declined 8.6% from the peak.

During the last three months of the spike, the index rose 33 points; In the first three months of the decline, the index dropped 36 points, just as San Francisco was rising rapidly. The index is now at its lowest level since January. Year-to-date gains declined from +27% earlier this year to +9.9%.

The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same home when it previously sold. Price changes within each sales pair are integrated into the index for the metro, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (procedure, Tracking the change in dollars needed to buy Same Homes over time, the index is a measure of home price inflation.

In the San Diego metro, home prices fell 2.8% In August, the biggest month-on-month decline since the housing bust 1, followed by a 2.5% drop in July and a 0.7% drop in June, the lowest since January.

The index is down 5.9% from the peak and has opened at a symmetrical pace in the last three months of the spike. That reduced its year-to-date gain to 12.7% from 29% earlier this year.

The current index value of 403 for San Diego means that home prices have increased by 303% since January 2000, when the index was set at 100. US, but has now fallen below Miami (+309%) and Los Angeles (+305%).

In the Los Angeles metro, home prices fell 2.3% In July to August, the biggest decline since the housing bust 1, after falling 1.6% in July and 0.4% in June. This reduced the year-over-year price gain to +12.1% from +23% a few months ago. The index is down 4.3% from peak.

In Denver metro, home prices fell 2.3% In July to August – the second biggest drop on record since January 2009 – after a 1.4% drop in July and a 0.1% drop in June.

The index has fallen 3.7% from the peak, cutting year-to-date gains in half to 12.0%.

In the Portland metro, home prices fell 1.9% In August, after a 1.1% drop in July, and a 0.1% drop in June, followed by a ridiculous spike.

The index has fallen 3.1% from the peak, reducing year-to-date gains from +19% at the beginning of the year to +8.6%.

In Dallas Metro:

  • Month on Month: -1.9%, after a -0.4% decline in July.
  • Year to date: +20.2%, down from +30% earlier this year.
  • From peak: -2.3%.

in metro phoenix,

  • Month by month: -2.1% after -0.2% in July.
  • Year to date: +17.1%, down from +32% earlier this year.
  • From peak: -2.3%.


Washington DC Metro,

  • Month-on-Month: -15%, after a 0.7% decline in July.
  • Year to date: +7.4%, down from +13% earlier this year.
  • From peak: -2.2%.

in the boston metro,

  • Month by month: -0.3% after -1.2% in July.
  • Year to date: +15% to 11.4% earlier this year.
  • From peak: -1.5%.

las vegas metro,

  • Month over month: -1.3% from the record in July.
  • Year to date: +17.5%, down from +28% earlier this year.
  • From peak: -1.3%.

Tampa Metro:

  • Month over month: -0.5% from record in July
  • Year to date: +28.0%, down from +36% earlier this year
  • Peak to: -0.5%

Miami Metro:

  • Month over month: -0.1% from the record in July.
  • Year to date: +28.6%, down from +34% earlier this year.
  • From Peak: -0.1%.

in the New York subway,

  • Month over month: -0.5% from record in July
  • Year to date: +12.3%, down from +15% earlier this year
  • Peak to: -0.5%

The New York metro has experienced 175% house price inflation since January 2000, based on a Case-Shiller index value of 275. The remaining cities (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit and Cleveland) in the 20-city Case-Shiller Index have experienced low housing price inflation and do not qualify for this illustrious list of the hottest housing bubbles. But all of them posted monthly declines in August.

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