Something has to be done about this: House prices in the San Francisco Bay Area fell faster than they peaked, rather than peaked.
By wolf richter for wolf street,
Whatever data set we’re looking at, housing bubble 2 continues to wane. today we got S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index For “November,” which is a three-month moving average of home sales entered in the public records In September, October and November, roughly reflecting the deals done from August to October.
Prices in all 20 metros in the index declined over the past month, and all continued their decline from their peaks last spring or summer.
The San Francisco Bay Area is the leader here. The index for single-family homes was down 14% from the peak in May and turned negative year-over-year, having fallen sharply in the six months following the peak in May, they accelerated in the six months through May. Had gone.
The Case-Shiller index is different from the mean-price index. It uses a “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to the same homes sold in the past. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the last sale occurred, and adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (procedure, This “sales pairs” method makes the Case-Shiller index a more reliable indicator than average price indices, but it lags months.
The median-price index reflects the median price of all homes sold that month, and therefore can be skewed by changes in the mix of homes sold, which is a big issue when the market changes dramatically, such as in 2022. in. But they are more topical.
And the average price indices have declined significantly. Average price of all types of homes sold across the United States December fell 11.3% from June’s peakAccording to the National Association of Realtors, while today’s National Case-Shiller Index (moving average of the three months through November), declined only 3.6% from the peak.
Average price in San Francisco Bay Area Fell 30% in December from insane peak in March, and was down 10% year-over-year. The Case-Shiller index for the Bay Area today (reflecting home sales in September, October and November) was down 14.4% from the peak, and down 1.6% year-to-date.
on a month-to-month basisAs of today, the Case-Shiller index has fallen again in all 20 metros. The biggest month-on-month declines were in:
- Phoenix: -1.9%
- Las Vegas: -1.7%
- San Francisco: -1.6%
- Seattle: -1.5%
- San Diego: -1.4%
- Dallas: -1.1%
- Tampa: -1.0%
from their peaksWhich is from May to July, home prices fell the most:
- San Francisco Bay Area: -14.3%
- Seattle Metro: -13.5%
- San Diego Metro: -9.9%
- Phoenix Metro: -7.7%
- Denver Metro: -7.5%
- Los Angeles Metro: -7.4%
- Las Vegas Metro: -7.0%.
- Dallas Metro: -6.6%
San Francisco Bay Area: The index for “San Francisco” covers five counties of the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area: San Francisco, part of Silicon Valley, part of the East Bay, and part of the North Bay.
- Month over month: -1.6%.
- From peak in May: -14.4%.
- Year to date: -1.6%.
- Lowest since June 2021.
- Prices fell faster than they rose:
- Down six months from peak in May: -56.8 points
- Up in six months, peaked in May: +53.4 points.
in the Seattle Metro,
- Month over month: -1.5%.
- From peak in May: -13.5%.
- Year to date: +1.5%.
- Down six months from peak in May: -55.9 points
- Up in six months to peak in May: +61.4 points.
San Diego Metro:
- Month over month: -1.4%.
- From peak in May: -9.9%.
- Year to date: +4.8%.
- Down six months from peak in May: -42.5 points
- Peaked in May in six months: +60.1 points.
Phoenix Metro,
- Month over month: -1.9%.
- From peak in June: -7.7%.
- YoY: +6.3%
- Down in five months from peak in June: -26.4 points
- Peaked in June over five months: +36.1 points.
Denver Metro:
- Month over month: -0.8%.
- From peak in May: -7.5%.
- Year over year: +6.1%.
- Down in six months from peak in May: -24.8 points
- Up in six months to peak in May: +42.6 points.
Los Angeles Metro:
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in May: -7.4%.
- Year to date: +4.4%.
- Down six months from peak in May: -31.2 points
- Up in six months to peak in May: +47.8 points.
las vegas metro,
- Month over month: -1.7%.
- From peak in July: -7.0%.
- YoY: +6.6%
- Down four months from peak in July: -21.1 points
- Four-month top in July: +25.5 points.
Dallas Metro:
- Month over month: -1.1%.
- From peak in June: -6.6%.
- YoY: +10.9%
- Down five months from peak in June: -20.3 points
- Peaked in June over five months: +39.4 points.
Portland Metro:
- Month over month: -0.9%.
- From peak in May: -6.1%.
- Year to date: +3.9%.
- Down in six months from peak in May: -20.9 points
- Up in six months, peaked in May: +33.1 points.
Boston Metro,
- Month over month: -0.7%.
- From peak in June: -4.6%.
- YoY: +6.9%
- Down five months from peak in June: -14.6 points
- Peaked in June over five months: +30.2 points.
Washington DC Metro,
- Month over month: -0.3%.
- From peak in June: -3.9%.
- YoY: +5.3%
- Down in five months from peak in June: -12.1 points
- Peaked in June over five months: +22.4 points.
Tampa Metro:
- Month over month: -1.0%.
- From peak in July: -3.1%
- YoY: +16.9%
- Down four months from peak in July: -11.8 points
- Up in four months to peak in July: +31.4 points.
Miami Metro:
- Month over month: -0.2%.
- From peak in July: -2.3%
- YoY: +18.4%
- Down in four months from peak in July: -9.6 points
- Up in four months to peak in July: +37.8 points.
in the New York subway,
- Month over month: -0.1%.
- From peak in July: -1.6%
- YoY: +8.1%
- Down four months from peak in July: -4.3 points
- Up in four months to peak in July: +12.1 points.
The Case-Shiller Index value for Miami Metro in November was 400. All Case-Shiller indices were set to 100 for the year 2000. This means that despite the recent decline, Miami house prices are up 300% since 2000. This makes it #1 in Case-Shiller in terms of price growth since 2000. index.
Los Angeles and San Diego held the #1 slot at different times, but prices have dropped faster than Miami. The index value fell to 392 for Los Angeles and 385 for San Diego.
In the New York metro, housing price inflation since 2000 was 172%, with an index price of 272. This makes it the low end of most splendid housing bubbles.
Of the remaining six metros in the 20-city Case-Shiller Index, housing price inflation has been significantly lower since 2000, and they do not qualify for this lineup. Home prices have fallen in each of them for months. Today in the “November” index, prices declined further, month-over-month: Chicago (-0.6%), Charlotte (-0.7%), Minneapolis (-0.7%), Atlanta (-0.6%), Detroit (-0.4%) , and Cleveland (-0.7%).
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